The Weather Channel is deliberately deflating at least 50% of their high temperature estimates, by an average of 3.9%, and exaggerating 100% of their stated high temperatures, by an average of 3%

JeffMiller · January 11, 2022, 12:16am

“La plus belle des ruses du diable est de vous persuader qu’il n’existe pas."

(“The devil’s finest trick is to persuade you that he does not exist.”)”

From "Le Spleen de Paris", by Charles Baudelaire, 1869

Sherlock: I’ve been neglecting my hobby. I’m going to visit Swirl-Theory.com and discuss conspiracy theories.

Watson: Your hobby is conspiracy theories?

Sherlock: No, of course not. They’re pure sophistry. Large groups of people cannot keep secrets. My hobby is conspiracy theorists. I adore them, as one with a barmy uncle or a pet that can’t stop walking into walls.

From the T.V. show “Elementary”, posted on Reddit’s “r/conspiratard” subgroup

The Weather Channel is deliberately deflating at least 50% of their high temperature estimates, by an average of 3.9%.

100% of the Weather Channel’s stated high temperatures were exaggerated above the actual high temperature, by an average of 3%.

Weather reporting is an “inexact Science”, right? But, that said, if we study temperature predictions over time, we’d see some subset, some percentage of those predictions that were correct. And then we’d have another subset, with an even split between those that were too high, and those that were too low. And the percentages would even out. Right?

I undertook the experiment that follows because at 9 a.m. on Monday, June 7, I got a text on my phone, asking if I was ready for the heat wave that week.

It’s been unseasonably cool throughout the Spring, here in New York, and everywhere else, quite frankly. Two weekends ago, at the U.S. women’s Open golf championship in San Francisco, the players were wearing long sleeves, and winter hats…in June!

The heat wave propaganda bullshit on my phone, in the direct face of the cool weather I was experiencing, spurred me to action.

I’ve collected three sets of data. One is on upward or downward revisions of estimated high temperature.

ESTIMATED HIGH TEMPERATURES

6/8 - There was a 3.5% increase in the estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 8 for June 8

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 11 increased 19.7% from June 8 to June 9

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 13 increased 6.8% from June 8 to June 9

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 12 increased 4% from June 8 to June 10

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 15 increased 4% from June 8 to June 10

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 10 increased 3.8% from June 9 to June 10

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 11 decreased 8.9% from June 9 to June 10 (for a net 10.8% increase for 6/11)

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 13 decreased 10.1% from June 9 to June 10

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 14 decreased 2.4% from June 9 to June 10

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 15 was revised upward 1.2% from June 9 to June 10

6/11 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 12 decreased 7.8% from June 10 to June 11

6/15 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 15 was revised downward 1.2% from June 10 to June 15

6/15 - The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 16 increased 1.2%, from June 10 to June 15.

To this writing, we have 13 examples of revision of estimated high temperatures. 8 are increases, and 5 are decreases. There should be six increases and seven decreases, or vice versa.

It should be 50% and 50%, when in fact it is 66% and 33%.

I don’t know how to say it any better, statistically.

Now let’s take a look at the percentages of the increases and decreases in the estimates.

If everyone’s on the level, when we add up the total percentage of increases and compare it to the total percentage of decreases, they too, should be equal, just like the 50/50 split in numbers that we should have seen above with the number of upward and lowered revisions, but didn’t, because the Weather Channel is fraudulently exaggerating the number of increases.

There’s 44.2% of increases. There are 30.4% of decreases. The percentages should be equal - the output of honest but admittedly-inexact forecasters doing their best. It should be 50/50, but it’s 60/40.

I hope I’m not messing up any of the math and the stat-speak. But I get credit for the discovery, and everyone knows I suck at math. I was an English major, ha. And, as I must tirelessly note, the only two courses I ever failed were Trigonometry in High School, and Probability and Statistics in College.

Although, remarkably, I met a candidate the other day, literally two days ago, who’d said the exact same thing to me! That she’d only needed to pass two courses to get her Master’s, one of which was Probability and Statistics. And how she’d failed it when she was younger, and then, years later, went back at it, and passed it with ease! She wondered if it was a maturity thing.

That’s possible. It might also be due to our etheric environment, but that’s a sidebar.

I bring up the statistics things because, whenever my material hits public consciousness, I’m sure the “his math was all wrong” argument will be attempted. I’m forestalling it here. Closing the distance before the weapon has time to arm itself.

The second metric I’ve collected is estimated high temperature vs. actual high temperature. I get the actual high temperature from Central Park.

Some of the estimates were from days prior to the date in question, and others were from the very morning of that date.

ESTIMATED VS. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s 6/8 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/9 was 4.7% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s 6/9 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/15 was 3.7% higher that the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s 6/9 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/10 was 1.25% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/11 - The Weather Channel’s 6/10 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/11 was 6.2% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/15 - The Weather Channel’s 6/10 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/15 was 4.8% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/16 - The Weather Channel’s 6/16 estimate of the high temperature in Manhattan for 6/16 was 2.6% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park

To date, there are six examples of estimated-to-actual high temperatures. As stated above, the actual high temperature in Manhattan is from Central Park. I check at Noon and again at 3 p.m., the latter which is considered to be when the high temperature of the day occurs.

If everyone’s on the level, when we add up these estimates, the number that were higher than actual should map exactly against those that were lower than actual. 50-50. Yet, here, all six estimates are higher than the temperature was in actuality.

That means, at a minimum, the Weather Channel is deliberately deflating at least 50% of their high temperature estimates. And, given the serial-lying we’ve uncovered, I think it’s reasonable to presume they’ve deflated all of them.

But let’s press on, shall we?

If everyone’s on the level, when we add up the variance of high temperatures to actual over time, we’ll see a 50/50 split. Yet, here, there are 23.5% of over-estimations, and 0% of underestimations.

The Weather Channel has deflated their estimated high temperatures by an average of 3.9%.

The third set of data will be the most difficult for the Coincidence Theorist to assimilate: stated high temperature versus actual high temperature. To get the stated high temperature, I check “temperature Manhattan” on the weather channel. To get the actual high temperature, I go online and get the temperature in Central Park.

Despite the fact that Central Park covers a huge chunk of Manhattan, “but that was in Central Park!” will be the parrot-like response, regardless of the incidence. That’s because many or most readers will grasp virtually any straw, no matter how thin, to remain off the hook of personal responsibility.

With the probably explanation being that the folks in charge have positioned the temperature sensor in Manhattan near a heat source, just as they have in the following example.

In January 2018 notalotofpeopleknowthat.com said “New York’s Temperature Record Massively Altered By NOAA”.

The article goes on to say “On average the mean temperatures in Jan 2014 were 2.7F less than in 1943. Yet, according to NOAA, the difference was only 0.9F.

Somehow, NOAA has adjusted past temperatures down, relatively, by 1.8F.

Indeed, it is arguably worse than that. You will notice that there is an outlier in Syracuse, which suggests that 2014, quite nonsensically, was warmer. Syracuse’s temperature station is, however, based at the International Airport there, slap bang in between runways. (The blue marker is the current site).

[image]

The weather station has been at the same location, to within a few hundred yards, since 1929, when it looked like this. During the war it was used as a flight training centre. Now it is an international airport, with two asphalt runways handling nearly 2 million passenger a year.

Clearly, given the divergence in temperatures between Syracuse and the other six divisional sites, there is a massive UHI effect here. If we exclude Syracuse, which clearly should not be used for climate purposes, the average difference between 1943 and 2014 rises to 3.3F.

This means that NOAA has adjusted temperatures by an astonishing 2.4F, or about 1.3C.”

You know that incredibly hot air blows out the back of a jet engine, right? That one photo and example would be enough to convince a class of elementary school kids of the scam being worked upon them, but we live in strange times.

Now, let’s go to the stated-vs.-actual game films from Manhattan!

STATED VS. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES

6/8 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan on June 8 was 3.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s stated temperature in Manhattan at Noon on June 9 was 4.7% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park

6/9 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan at 3 p.m. on June 9 was 2.3% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/10 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan at Noon on 6/10 was 3.8% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/11 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan at Noon on 6/11 was 1.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/15 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan at 3 p.m. on 6/15 was 2.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

6/16 - The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan at Noon on 6/16 was 2.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park

There are seven examples. If everyone’s on the level, there should be zero example where stated and actual differed. Yet, here, all seven examples differ, and all are exaggerated in the direction of, wait for it, warming.

100% of the Weather Channel’s stated high temperatures were exaggerated above the actual high temperature, by an average of 3%.

Since the stated vs. actual temperatures don’t vary by identical amounts in the data I’ve collected on Manhattan, it’s almost certain that human intervention is at play, versus what would be seen if it were simply the positioning of two different static data collection instruments.

I’m about to move to Pittsburgh for a few months, prior to returning at last to Oahu. So I’ll get to do this crushingly-boring and time-consuming study in both of those places, for the sake of Science, and for the Coincidence Theorists who would have to pushed beyond this set of data to get their heads right.

But I’m more than pleased with this, as a start.

Scientifically proving that there is a Great Big Conspiracy.

I’ve exposed the duplicity of the Weather Channel by using what was known in the old days as “fact checking”.

JUNE 7, 2021

At 9 a.m. on Monday, June 7, I got a text on my phone, asking if I was ready for the heat wave that week.

JUNE 8, 2021

At 9 a.m. on Tuesday, June 8, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Manhattan was 86 degrees. At 11 a.m., they revised the temperature up from 86 to 88. At 11:10 a.m., they revised the temperature up again, to 89.

On June 8, the Weather Channel revised the projected high temperature for June 8 up 3.5%.

At Noon on June 8, it was 86 degrees in Central Park. At 3 p.m. on June 8, it was 85 degrees in Central Park.

On June 8th, the Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan from June 8 (89 degrees) was 3.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park on June 8.

In the data collected regarding June 8, there is : 7% of temperature inflation and zero temperature deflation.

Predicted high temperature increased 3.5%.

The predicted high temperature was 3.5% higher than the actual temperature.

6/8 - 3.5% increase in estimated high temperature

6/8 - 3.5% exaggeration of actual high temperature

JUNE 9, 2021

On June 8, the Weather Channel’s projected high temperature for Manhattan for Tuesday, June 9 was 88 degrees.

At Noon on Tuesday, June 9, The Weather Channel said it was 88 degrees in Manhattan. At Noon on June 9 the temperature in Central Park was, in fact, 85 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan from June 8 for June 9 was 4.7% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park on June 9.

At Noon on June 9, the Weather Channel’s documentation of the temperature in Manhattan was 4.7% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park at Noon on June 9.

At 3 p.m. on June 9, the Weather Channel said that the temperature in Manhattan was 90 degrees. At 3 p.m. on June 9, the temperature in Central Park was, in fact, 88 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s documention of the temperature in Manhattan at 3 p.m. on June 9 was 2.3% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park at 3 p.m. on June 9.

Estimated temperature for June 9 on June 8 was 88 degrees. Actual high temperature on June 9 was 88 degrees. Zero deviation.

JUNE 10, 2021

On June 8, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Thursday, June 10 was 80 degrees. On June 9th, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Wednesday, June 20 was unchanged at 80 degrees.

At 10 a.m. on June 10, the weather channel’s projected high for June 10 was 82 degrees. At Noon on June 10, the weather channel’s projected high for June 10 was 83 degrees.

The weather channel revised their projected high for June 10 (6) up 3.8% from June 9 to June 10.

At Noon on June 10, The Weather Channel’s documentation of the temperature in Manhattan was 82 degrees. At Noon on June 10, the temperature in Central Park was 79 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s documentation of the temperature in Manhattan at Noon on June 10 was (7) 3.8% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park at Noon on June 10.

JUNE 11, 2021

On June 8, the projected high for Friday, June 11 was 66 degrees. On June 9, the projected high for Friday, June 11 was 79 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for Friday, June 11 was revised upward 19.7% from June 8 to June 9.

On June 10, the Weather Channel’s projected high for June 11 was 72 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for Friday, June 11 was revised downward 8.9% from June 9 to June 10.

At Noon and 3 p.m. on June 11, the Weather Channel documented the temperature for Manhattan was 68 degrees. At Noon on July 11, the temperature in Central Park was 66 degrees. At Noon and 3 p.m. on June 11, it was 67 degrees in Central Park.

The stated temperature at Noon was 2.9% higher than the actual temperature.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for Manhattan for June 11 from just the day before, June 10, was 72 degrees. That’s 6.2% lower than the actual high temperature of 67 degrees on June 11.

The Weather Channel’s documentation of the temperature in Manhattan at Noon on June 11 1.5**% higher than the actual temperature** in Central Park at Noon on June 11.

JUNE 12, 2021

On June 8, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Saturday, June 12 was 74 degrees. On June 10, their projected high for Saturday, June 12 was 77 degrees.

The projected high for Saturday, June 12 was revised upward 4% from June 8 to June 10.

On June 11, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Manhattan for June 12 was 71 degrees. The estimate decreased 7.8% from June 10 to June 11.

JUNE 13, 2021

On June 8, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Sunday, June 13 was 74 degrees. On June 9, the projected high for Sunday, June 13 was 79 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for Sunday June 13 was revised upward 6.8% from June 8 to June 9.

On June 10, the Weather Channel’s projected high for June 13 was 71 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for June 13 was revised downward 10.1% from June 9 to June 10.

JUNE 14, 2021

On June 9, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Monday, June 14 was 82 degrees.

On June 10, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Monday, June 14 was 80 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for June 14 was revised downward 2.4% from June 9 to June 10.

JUNE 15, 2021

On June 9, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Tuesday, June 15 was 81 degrees.

On June 10, Weather Channel’s projected high for Tuesday, June 15 was 82 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for June 15 was revised upward 1.2% from June 9 to June 10.

On June 15, the Weather Channel’s projected high for that date was 81 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s projected high for June 15 was revised downward 1.2% from June 10 to June 15.

At 3 p.m. on June 15, the Weather Channel said it was 80 degrees in Manhattan. At 3 p.m. on June 15, the actual temperature in Central Park was 78 degrees.

The stated high temperature at 3 p.m. on 6/15 was 2.5% higher than the actual high temperature.

The 6/9 estimate of 81 degrees was 3.7% higher that the actual high temperature on 6/15 of 78 degrees.

The 6/10 estimate of 82 degrees was 4.8% higher than the actual high temperature on 6/15 of 78 degrees.

The 6/15 estimate of 81 degrees for the temperature on that date was 3.7% higher than the actual high temperature on 6/15 of 78 degrees.

JUNE 16, 2021

On June 10, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Wednesday, June 16 was 78 degrees.

On June 15, the Weather Channel’s projected high for Wednesday, June 16 was 79 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s estimated high temperature for Manhattan on June 16 increased 1.2%, from June 10 to June 15.

On June 16, the Weather Channel’s projected high for that date was 78 degrees.

At Noon on June 16, the Weather said that the temperature in Manhattan was 76 degrees. At Noon on June 16, the temperature in Central Park was, in fact, 76 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s 6/16 estimate of the high temperature for 6/16 of 78 degrees was 2.6% higher than the actual temperature in Central Park of 76 degrees.

The Weather Channel’s stated high temperature in Manhattan on 6/16 was 78 degrees, 2.5% higher than the actual high temperature in Central Park of 76 degrees.