It’s March, 2017, and crime levels are as low as they’ve been in my lifetime. In fact, in many cases, they’re as low as they’ve been since they started keeping records.
Since those factual statements go against the general rhetoric deployed in politics and the media, I’ve appended multiple recent examples below to support them.
One current news story, below, tells us that " L.A. Police See Drop in Latino Reports of Crime Amid Deportation Fears ".
While another story, from just five days prior, tells us " Immigrants, regardless of their legal status, commit crimes at lower rates than do native-born citizens. Since 1990, violent crime rates have dropped by half, while the number of immigrants doubled, and the number of undocumented immigrants tripled, the report says. It cites a University of Buffalo study that examined crime in 200 metro areas with varying immigrant population sizes. Researchers found that cities with larger immigrant communities saw much greater declines in homicides than did cities with smaller immigrant populations ."
Crime dropping since 1990, and the immigrants more law abiding, not less, along the way from then to now. But they confuse the issue, in that, while immigrant populations increased, we’d need a granular analysis of immigrants as a total percentage of population, and non-immigrants as total percentage of populations.
For someone who actually KNOWS statistics, it would be simple enough to document crimes committed, and the immigration status of those committing them, and then figuring out the percentage of legal vs. illegal as percentage of total population, to see just who is more law-abiding.
Whatever the case, the " deportation fears " canard is a micro-level plausible-deniability excuse, put forward to keep your eyes off the larger pattern we’re discussing and documenting here.
In New Haven, CT, two months ago, we saw that " Half as many New Haveners get shot each year as they did a decade ago, and community policing deserves much of the credit, officials declared Thursday… " No mention of citizenship status here!
But, rather, just another micro-level plausible-deniability excuse, put forward to keep your eyes off the larger patter we’re discussing and documenting here.
We learn that " Homicides dropped from 15 to 13 from the year before. Robberies with firearms dropped 27 percent, overall robberies 17 percent, aggravated assaults 2.8 percent ."
So, how come they did the math on all the statistics, except homicide? That was a very careful omission. It’s a 13% drop!
This thread is now in its fourth year. Tracking great, epochal positive changes during those years. Here’s a data point for you:
" The city saw an average of 126 shootings a year from 2003-2012; for the last four years the number has remained in the 60s. Over the past five years (a high point used as a benchmark), the number of annual homicides dropped 61 percent, robberies 48.4 percent, burglaries 40.8 percent, and aggravated assaults 29.1 percent ."
Another recent story below is headlined " Seattle saw drop in crime from 2016, report says. " While that’s factually, correct, crime did drop, you have to dig way, way down in the article, to where they buried this: " Across the board, crime in the observed categories was reduced by 14 percent since the same period of time last year, going from 8,878 total crimes to 7,643 ", to learn the magnitude of the drop.
So the honest headline would read “Seattle saw 14% drop in crime from 2016”, and instead you got a hedging headline, " Seattle saw drop in crime from 2016" , and they buried the statistic. Oh, and no mention of immigrants.
That same story goes on to say " Seattle saw just two cases of homicide between January and mid-March this year, a marginal decrease from the six cases it saw last year ."
Marginal: when something is minimal or barely enough
Going from six down to two is a sixty six percent drop. Which the reporter writing the article described as " marginal ". Would you describe a 66% drop, to the lowest levels ever seen in history, as " marginal ", or " minimal "?
One of the most cheering nuggets in these very-cheering stories is this one, from New Haven, CT:
" According to a case study carried out by the Center for Government Excellence, the department had been using stat programs by the time O’Toole was sworn in as the Chief of SPD in June 2013. They were called “Crime Review” and “Crime Capsule.” But O’Toole saw that crime and operations data was seldom utilized, so she requested that the crime data center compile monthly reports on property crimes by precinct. This yielded clear results, showing that the “numbers told a different story than the anecdotal remarks. ”
Here we’ve seen a new, female(!) police chief was sworn in in 2013, right when the great positive changes we’re discussing got underway. She made them use the statistical software they had, but inexplicably weren’t using. And it stopped the department’s ability to lie about stuff. I said it very aggressively, just there, while the article says it very softly, " This yielded clear results, showing that the “numbers told a different story than the anecdotal remarks .”
So great positive changes are underway, even within the very police department’s we’re discussing . Everything’s changing, everyone’s changing, for the better.
Well, most folks are, anyway. The tactics I’ve arduously outlined in this post are no different than those documented previously in posts on the same subject. They are the same, formulaic tactics, used in every city in every nation on Earth, by members of the wholly-controlled-and-coopted Political, Academic and Scientific establishments who know that they need to go along to get along, and that the first rule of Fight Club is that you don’t talk about Fight Club.
The tactics and the players aren’t changing, one iota, but the world they inhabit is changing, epochally, for the better.
Just what do you think is going to happen to those players, and their tired tactics, and when do you think it’s going to happen?
I think they’re going to be voted out, kicked, out, replaced by new, more honest police chiefs, who are going to implement the software programs the previous chief inexplicably wasn’t using.
January 12, 2017 - New Haven, CT - Crime Drop Heralded
Half as many New Haveners get shot each year as they did a decade ago , and community policing deserves much of the credit, officials declared Thursday with the release of 2016 year-end crime statistics.
They released the statistics at a press conference held on the third floor of police headquarters. at 1 Union Ave.
Homicides dropped from 15 to 13 from the year before. Robberies with firearms dropped 27 percent, overall robberies 17 percent, aggravated assaults 2.8 percent.
Shootings actually inched up from 63 to 67, and shots fired leaped from 105 to 160. But, the police said, the latter statistics may reflect a tripling in the capacity of the computerized ShotSpotter system that tracks shots fired (including those fired by cops at the range).
And the number of shootings has steadily declined in town over the past 13 years: The city saw an average of 126 shootings a year from 2003-2012; f or the last four years the number has remained in the 60s.
Over the past five years (a high point used as a benchmark), the number of annual homicides dropped 61 percent, robberies 48.4 percent, burglaries 40.8 percent, and aggravated assaults 29.1 percent.
March 16, 2017 - Higher Immigration May Have Aided Crime Drop, Study Says
Immigrants, regardless of their legal status, commit crimes at lower rates than do native-born citizens , reports The Sentencing Project in a summary of research on the subject. The advocacy group says that higher levels of immigration in recent decades “may have contributed to the historic drop in crime rates,” and that police chiefs believe that intensifying immigration enforcement undermines public safety. The group notes that immigrants are under-represented in U.S. prisons.
Since 1990, violent crime rates have dropped by half, while the number of immigrants doubled, and the number of undocumented immigrants tripled, the report says. It cites a University of Buffalo study that examined crime in 200 metro areas with varying immigrant population sizes. Researchers found that cities with larger immigrant communities saw much greater declines in homicides than did cities with smaller immigrant populations.
March 18, 2017 - Seattle saw drop in crime from 2016, report says
Crime is down in Seattle across most reported categories, according to a Seattle Police Department report released Wednesday.
The most recent SeaStat report compares crime data from 2016 and 2017 that occurred in Seattle between January 1 and March 15. These include everything from vehicle theft and arson to homicide and aggravated assault, among other crimes committed against both person and property.
The SeaStat report is a collection of data that helps the department allocate its resources and more effectively combat serious crime.
The report shows that crime fell in all categories but two: domestic violence and arson. Across the board, crime in the observed categories was reduced by 14 percent since the same period of time last year , going from 8,878 total crimes to 7,643.
Seattle saw just two cases of homicide between January and mid-March this year, a marginal decrease from the six cases it saw last year.
According to a case study carried out by the Center for Government Excellence, the department had been using stat programs by the time O’Toole was sworn in as the Chief of SPD in June 2013. They were called “Crime Review” and “Crime Capsule.” But O’Toole saw that crime and operations data was seldom utilized , so she requested that the crime data center compile monthly reports on property crimes by precinct. This yielded clear results, showing that the “numbers told a different story than the anecdotal remarks.”
March 21, 2017 - L.A. Police See Drop in Latino Reports of Crime Amid Deportation Fears
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Latinos in Los Angeles are lodging fewer reports of rape and spousal abuse to police so far this year amid heightened concerns among immigrants that contact with law enforcement could lead to deportation, police Chief Charlie Beck said on Tuesday.
Beck cited 41 fewer reports of rape - down 25 percent - and 118 fewer domestic violence complaints - a 10 percent drop - among the city’s Hispanic residents since January, compared with the same period of 2016.