“Éowyn it was, and Dernhelm also. For into Merry’s mind flashed the memory of the face that he saw at the riding from Dunharrow: the face of one that goes seeking death, having no hope. Pity filled his heart and great wonder, and suddenly the slow-kindled courage of his race awoke. He clenched his hand. She should not die, so fair, so desperate! At least she should not die alone, unaided.”
J.R.R. Tolkien, from “ The Return of the King ”
John McClane: You know what you get for being a hero? Nothin’. You get shot at. You get a little pat on the back, blah, blah, blah, attaboy. You get divorced. Your wife can’t remember your last name. Your kids don’t want to talk to you. You get to eat a lot of meals by yourself. Trust me, kid, nobody wants to be that guy.
Matt Farrell: Then why are you doing this?
John McClane: Because there’s nobody else to do it right now, that’s why. Believe me, if there were somebody else to do it, I’d let them do it, but there’s not. So we’re doing it.
Matt Farrell: Ah. That’s what makes you that guy.
From “ Live Free or Die Hard ”, 2007
John Blutarsky: What? “Over”? Did you say " over "? Nothing is over until we decide it is!
From “ Animal House ”, 1978
[
](javascript:void(null))
It’s February, 2017, and Nature is booming and burgeoning to a level not seen in my lifetime. Since that statement directly refutes our State Religion, which holds that “ Poor Mother Gaia is Dying, Crushed by the Virus-Like Burden of Mankind ”, I’ve appended two different recent examples below to support it.
The first article that follows is headlined “ Some ocean ecosystems are bouncing back from climate change stress. What makes them special ?”
While that’s great news, on its face, it hedges, as it won’t mention what percentage “ some ” represents. Later in the article, we read “ more than 80 percent of coastal ecosystem scientists surveyed say they have observed instances of habitats resisting or recovering from climate change impacts .”
That’s an attempt at appearing to be scientific, by presenting some sort of percentage, but carefully avoiding the important one - the one they omitted from the headline.
In “ What makes them special ?”, the word “ special ” implies it’s a small percentage. But there’s no data about what “some” represents, at all, other than that queasy allusion away from specificity. This in an environment where marine environments are rebounding in a spectacular way around the globe, as documented daily for three continuous years, now, in this thread.
What follows is a micro-level plausible-deniability excuse from the article, which was tabled in an attempt to keep your eye off the larger, macro-level phenomenon I just mentioned:
“ local- to regional-scale management can help buffer global climatic impacts . “
It’s easy enough to prove that marine populations are rebounding and burgeoning in both areas where the vague “ local- to regional-scale management ” is taking place, and also where it is not taking place.
For example, The highest-numbers-in-history salmon counted at Bonneville this year are involved and interact with both “ management areas ” and “ non-management ” areas during their lengthy journey. There’s no science in the article saying “this (or that) precise local-scale management effort in the spawning grounds led demonstrably to an X percent increase in salmon, proven by Y.” Nope, just a queasy, quasi-mystical assertion, by your betters, who surely know better than you .
The good news is, if you are reading this thread, you already know better.
The second story featured below is headlined “ Yucatan flamingo population reportedly is rebounding .” That’s great news, I mean, wait, what do you mean “ reportedly ”? They are, or they are not rebounding. Using the word “ reportedly ” is what’s called “ planting the seed of doubt .”
The article says “ more than 30 thousand flamingos were detected .” Why the use of an imprecise number, versus a specific number? And, further, why use a hedging number that’s lower than the actual number?
The article goes on to say “ which speaks of an imminent recovery of this species after reaching critical indexes in 2012 with 6 thousand of the waterfowl .”
It “ speaks of ” an “ imminent ” recovery.
“ Speak of ” is “ to indicate or suggest (something) ”.
Indicate is “ to point to…to be a sign, symptom, or index of .” Suggest is " state or express indirectly. "
So it’s clear hedging, vs. the accurate words, which would be “documents” or “shows.”
An “ imminent ” recovery.
Imminent: “ready to take place; especially : hanging threateningly over one’s head was in imminent danger of being run over.”
So hedging, again - the recovery is not taking place, but rather the recover is ready to take place. With a very negative, ill-feeling spin, “ hanging dangerously over one’s head" .
The article blathers on awhile, then says “ Another 5 thousand specimens that are grouped in dispersed populations, far from the communities settled in the reserves, were detected by air and satellite .”
Oh, wait, wow, you just added 5,000 to the bird total. Cutting it up like that is called “ compartmentalization .” So “ more than 30,000 , could be, say, 37,000, plus the five thousand you hid down below, making the initial “ more than 30,000 ” hide an actual “42,000.”
“ Detected ” also hedges, is softer, more questionable than “counted.”
Using the lowest-possible number, 30,001, for “ more than 30,000 ”, plus the 5,000 hidden down below, equals 35,001 - up from 6,000 in 2012. Since they carefully avoided giving accurate numbers, and cut up the numbers, and avoided at all costs printing a percentage, I’ve had to go through this process and do the math.
It’s a 483% increase, in four years. Increased almost five-fold in just four years.
Using 35,000, which is also correct for “ more than 30,000 ”, plus the compartmentalized 5,000, that’s 45,000…for a six hundred percent increase.
And, so we’re clear, the author of the article says a 483-600% increase in four years is not a recovery, but rather a recovery that’s ready to take place .
It documents a population that is reportedly rebounding, not a population that is rebounding - let alone dramatically rebounding.
This is tiresome, isn’t it? Hearing your teacher blather on like this, as you look out the window? You can leave anytime you want, in fact, you chose to come to this class.
I’m teaching on an unpaid basis, which is the true beauty of this effort. As Don alluded in a recent post (along with a very gracious compliment), if I were doing this for fame or attention I’d have given up the effort long ago.
The quotes up at the top are me trying to explain why I’m doing this.
February 1, 2017 - Some ocean ecosystems are bouncing back from climate change stress. What makes them special?
As 2016 closed on another record year of rising temperatures , scientists have been searching for signs of ecosystem resilience in an ocean beset by coral bleaching and increasing ocean acidification. Now, they’ve found a reason to be optimistic.
Several factors may promote ecosystem recovery and allow the habitats to persist in the face of climate change, according to a study published online February 1 in the journal BioScience.
“We found a remarkable percentage of experts who had witnessed resilience across diverse global locations and ecosystems,” said lead author Dr. Jennifer O’Leary, California Sea Grant Extension Specialist based at California State Polytechnic University (Cal Poly) in San Luis Obispo and postdoctoral researcher at Stanford University’s Hopkins Marine Station at the time of the study. “Coastal ecosystems may still hold great potential to endure, and there are steps we can take to help buffer the impacts.”
Ocean Optimism
The study found that more than 80 percent of coastal ecosystem scientists surveyed say they have observed instances of habitats resisting or recovering from climate change impacts. The study’s authors designed an expert survey to look at how common resilience is in marine nearshore habitat. Survey respondents on average had 25 years of experience in studying coastal habitats, and provided insight on the factors that promote and inhibit resilience.
The authors suggest that local- to regional-scale management can help buffer global climatic impacts. In California, that means the network of marine protected areas (MPAs) may help increase coastal resilience by protecting the existing habitat and promoting better recruitment.
February 24, 2017 - Yucatan flamingo population reportedly is rebounding
The Río Lagartos Biosphere Reserve in the East of Yucatan is one of the main nesting refuges in Mexico for pink flamingos.
“It is a bird that identifies us as a state and as a country, even,” said Jorge Carlos Berlin Montero, delegate of Semarnat in Yucatan.
In Yucatan, this species makes its habitat in the 10 ecological reserves where more than 30 thousand flamingos were detected , which speaks of an imminent recovery of this species after reaching critical indexes in 2012 with 6 thousand of the waterfowl.
“Another 5 thousand specimens that are grouped in dispersed populations, far from the communities settled in the reserves, were detected by air and satellite.”
